The DECIDE Model and the Six-Step Loop You Run When the Fisk Arrival Falls Apart

The DECIDE model is a six-step framework the FAA uses to structure decisions under pressure: Detect, Estimate, Choose, Identify, Do, Evaluate. It works as a continuous loop, not a one-time checklist, so you keep re-running it as the situation changes. It applies to any decision in the cockpit, but it shines in high-workload moments like a go-around on the Oshkosh Fisk arrival during AirVenture week at Wittman Regional Airport in Oshkosh, Wisconsin.

Why aeronautical decision making matters more than stick-and-rudder skills

For decades, flying was taught mostly as a set of physical skills: pull back, houses get smaller; trim it, hold altitude; grease the landing. Those skills matter, but when the FAA studied the accident record, the finding was uncomfortable. The airplanes were not failing and the engines were not quitting. In accident after accident, the machine worked fine and the decisions broke.

That is why decision making is now built into training and into the Airman Certification Standards (ACS) your examiner grades you against on the checkride. The DECIDE model is one of the oldest and most useful of these tools because it is a loop you run again and again, not a checklist you run once.

The framework comes straight from the FAA’s own work on aeronautical decision making, laid out in the Pilot’s Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge and threaded through the ACS.

What does DECIDE stand for?

The six steps spell the word itself:

• D - Detect: Notice that something has changed.
• E - Estimate: Size up the need to react and the significance of the change.
• C - Choose: Pick the outcome you actually want.
• I - Identify: List the options that reach that outcome.
• D - Do: Commit to an action and fly the airplane.
• E - Evaluate: Check whether the action worked, then loop again.

To make each step concrete, keep one scenario running the whole way through: you’re inbound to Oshkosh on a warm July afternoon, 90 knots on the airspeed indicator per the NOTAM, Ripon behind you and the railroad tracks under your right wing. The controller at Fisk keys up and tells you to break it off, go around the lake, rejoin the line, and try again.

Step 1: How do I detect that a decision needs to be made?

Detect is the moment you notice something is no longer the way it was a minute ago. At Fisk, the controller hands you that detection for free - the break-off call is impossible to miss.

But detection is not always that loud. Sometimes it’s a needle that has crept where it shouldn’t be, a smell, a passenger who has gone quiet, or the small voice that says this doesn’t feel right.

Here’s the key insight: the pilots who get into trouble are often not the ones who made a bad decision. They’re the ones who never detected that a decision was needed at all. The change came slowly, they normalized it one step at a time, and ended up somewhere they’d never have chosen if shown the whole picture at once. Detection is really a habit - the habit of staying suspicious and noticing.

Step 2: How significant is the change? (Estimate)

Estimate the need to react and the significance of what happened. Not every change is an emergency, and calibrating your response to the actual size of the problem is part of being a mature pilot. Overreact and you can turn a nuisance into a crisis; underreact and you know how that story ends.

In the scenario, you estimate honestly: you got sent around. That is routine at this arrival - it happens hundreds of times during the show. The airplane is fine, nobody is hurt, and you have fuel. The significance is real but manageable, so you’re going to fly a procedure, not declare anything.

Now change the inputs: barely legal fuel reserves, an airsick passenger, and a scattered layer starting to look less scattered. Same break-off call, very different estimate. This step is where you take an honest inventory of everything on your plate, not just the newest thing.

Step 3: What outcome do I actually want? (Choose)

Choose your desired outcome before you pick an action. People skip this, and skipping it is a mistake.

In the Oshkosh go-around, the goal is not simply get on the ground. It’s to fly a safe, predictable re-entry into a crowded arrival without becoming a hazard, and land when it’s genuinely your turn.

Naming the outcome shapes everything that follows. If your only goal is get down now, you might cut a corner and end up nose to nose with another airplane in the busiest chunk of sky in the world that week. If your goal is safe and predictable, you’ll do the boring, correct thing. Examiners look for exactly this: they want to hear you articulate what you’re trying to achieve, then watch your actions line up with it. Outcome first, action second.

Step 4: What are my options? (Identify)

Identify your options and the actions that reach the outcome. Even under time pressure you can usually find more than one if you make yourself look.

In the scenario, your options include:

1. Fly the published go-around - around Green Lake or back out west per that day’s NOTAM - and rejoin at Ripon to try the arrival again.
2. Divert to one of the reliever airports the NOTAM lists for this exact purpose, sit on the ground, and come back when the crush eases.
3. Hold, talk to somebody, and get help if something about your airplane, fuel, or head has changed.

Notice that diverting is on the list. AirVenture culture leans hard toward getting in - you flew all this way and everyone you know is on the field. Identifying options honestly means putting the unglamorous choice on the table next to the exciting one and judging them on merit, not pride. Some of the best decisions look, from the outside, like giving up. They aren’t.

Step 5: How do I execute without making things worse? (Do)

Do means committing to your chosen option while flying the airplane first. Aviate, navigate, communicate - in that order, always.

You picked the published go-around, so you fly it: positive control, 90 knots, wings level, eyes outside, clearing for traffic, and following the procedure exactly as written. In that airspace, predictability is safety - everyone else is counting on you to do the standard thing.

One piece of the Do step gets lost: doing the right thing sometimes means not keying the mike. The Oshkosh NOTAM asks arriving pilots to keep the frequency clear and acknowledge by rocking your wings, not by talking. The correct action is not always more input - sometimes it’s disciplined quiet.

Step 6: Did it work? (Evaluate) - and why DECIDE is a loop

Evaluate the effect of your decision. Did it work? Are you better off? The situation is not static - you acted, the world responded, and you have to look at that response with clear eyes.

This is what makes DECIDE a loop, not a straight line. You go around the lake, rejoin at Ripon, fly the tracks back down to Fisk, and evaluate: Is the arrival still jammed? Is the weather holding? How’s my fuel after this extra flying I didn’t plan? If the fuel answer is getting uncomfortable, you’ve just detected a new change - and you’re right back at the top of the model. Good pilots run this loop continuously and quietly for the entire flight.

The fuel trap hiding inside the Oshkosh scenario

Here’s the trap that catches pilots at this arrival every year. You planned to Oshkosh with legal reserves - but you planned them direct, one approach, one landing. You did not budget for a go-around at Fisk, a lap around the lake, a rejoin, another arrival, and maybe a second go-around on a busy day. Every one of those costs fuel and time.

Run the Evaluate step honestly and the shortfall shows up while you still have options - while diverting to a nearby field with plenty of gas is a calm choice instead of a frightening one. The pilot who skips Evaluate discovers the fuel problem when the gauges are near the bottom and every remaining decision is a bad one. The model turns a future emergency into a present, boring diversion.

How do I actually get good at the DECIDE model?

You don’t get good at DECIDE by memorizing six words for the written test and never thinking about them again. You get good by narrating the loop out loud on ordinary flights when the stakes are low.

On your next flight, when anything changes - even something tiny - say it out loud:

• “I’m detecting the ceiling is lower than briefed.”
• “I estimate that’s significant because my alternate is that way.”
• “My desired outcome - what I choose - is to stay VFR with room to turn around.”
• “My options I can identify are A, B, and C.”
• “I’m going to do B.”
• A few minutes later: “Let me evaluate.”

Practice the loop on small stuff and it will be there for you, worn smooth and ready, on the day the stuff is not small. This isn’t only an Oshkosh tool - it works on a gusty crosswind worse than forecast, a trace of unexpected ice, a sick passenger over the mountains, or a no-go decision made on the ground before you start the engine. Six steps, every time.

The decision making - the part that actually keeps you alive - is free. It’s a habit of mind you can build on your very next flight in the pattern at your home field, long before you point the nose toward Wisconsin. And it’s exactly what examiners want to see: a pilot in command of the decision, not just along for the ride.

Key Takeaways

• DECIDE stands for Detect, Estimate, Choose, Identify, Do, Evaluate - an FAA framework for structured decision making under pressure.
• It’s a continuous loop, not a one-time checklist; the Evaluate step feeds a new Detect as the situation changes.
• Choose your outcome before your action - naming the goal keeps your actions predictable and safe, especially in crowded airspace.
• The Evaluate step surfaces the fuel trap on the Oshkosh arrival while you still have calm options to divert.
• Build the skill by narrating the loop out loud on low-stakes flights so it’s automatic when stakes are high.