Ryanair CEO warns Wizz Air and airBaltic may not survive the winter as fuel costs spike

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has publicly stated that he believes both Wizz Air and airBaltic may not survive the coming winter season. The warning centers on spiking jet fuel prices driven by continued Middle East instability, combined with weak winter travel demand — a combination that hits airlines without aggressive fuel hedging strategies especially hard.

Why Is O’Leary Targeting Wizz Air and airBaltic?

The trigger is fuel pricing. Continued geopolitical instability in the Middle East has pushed jet fuel costs significantly higher, and that hits different carriers in very different ways.

Ryanair hedges fuel aggressively, locking in prices months or even more than a year in advance. That financial strategy is how Europe’s largest low-cost carrier keeps fares low even when oil markets turn volatile.

Wizz Air and airBaltic do not hedge to the same degree. That means every week crude prices stay elevated, their operating costs climb above projections — and both airlines were already running on thin margins.

What’s Behind Wizz Air’s Vulnerability?

Wizz Air, the Hungarian low-cost carrier, has been under pressure since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted or eliminated a significant portion of its Eastern European and Central Asian route network. The airline had to reposition aircraft and has been clawing back market share in regions where it lacks strong brand presence.

Wizz Air’s stock price has taken a particularly hard hit amid the fuel cost concerns. The airline has pushed back on O’Leary’s comments, calling them “self-serving” — but notably has not released updated financial guidance to counter the narrative.

Where Does airBaltic Stand?

airBaltic, the Latvian national carrier, is a smaller operation but faces a similar cost squeeze. The partially state-owned airline operates an all-Airbus A220neo fleet — efficient aircraft, but the airline has been burning cash. Plans for an initial public offering have been repeatedly delayed.

The airline’s route network focuses on connecting the Baltic states to the rest of Europe, a market segment that is not experiencing strong growth. The Latvian government has indicated it would step in with support if needed, but EU state aid rules complicate that option — and a government backstop doesn’t fix underlying economics.

Is O’Leary Acting in Self-Interest?

Absolutely, and that context matters. O’Leary has a history of publicly questioning competitors’ viability right before Ryanair moves into their markets. If Wizz Air stumbles, Ryanair stands to pick up routes and airport slots across Europe.

But competitive motivation doesn’t make the underlying analysis wrong. The economics are straightforward: rising fuel costs plus falling winter demand equals a margin squeeze for any carrier that hasn’t hedged. Airline share prices across Europe have broadly declined, and the fuel picture shows no signs of improving.

Why This Matters Beyond European Airlines

When low-cost carriers get squeezed, the effects ripple outward:

Fares rise across the board as competitive pressure decreases
Aircraft orders get deferred or cancelled, affecting the manufacturing supply chain down to component suppliers
Pilot hiring can slow or freeze — Wizz Air and airBaltic together operate hundreds of aircraft, and a significant contraction would put a large number of European pilots on the market

For general aviation pilots, the signal is worth noting as well. Jet-A and avgas prices don’t move in lockstep with crude oil, but they’re correlated. When airlines start sweating fuel costs, it’s a reasonable indicator to watch your own operating expenses.

What Happens Next?

Winter is still months away, and fuel prices, travel demand, and the geopolitical situation can all shift. But the warning indicators are real: two mid-size European carriers with thin margins, rising costs, and weakening demand heading into the slowest season of the year. That’s not speculation — it’s balance-sheet math.

O’Leary may be stirring the pot, but the pot was already simmering.

Key Takeaways

Michael O’Leary predicts Wizz Air and airBaltic may not survive the winter, citing spiking fuel costs and weak seasonal demand
Ryanair’s aggressive fuel hedging insulates it from the same cost pressures hitting its competitors
Wizz Air’s network was already weakened by the loss of Eastern European and Central Asian routes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
airBaltic’s delayed IPO and cash burn leave it exposed, despite potential Latvian government support
Broader aviation impacts include potential fare increases, deferred aircraft orders, and disruption to European pilot hiring pipelines