Canada's F thirty-five review drags on with no decision in sight

Canada’s defence minister has confirmed that Ottawa’s review of its planned purchase of 88 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighter jets remains ongoing with no timeline for a decision. The open-ended review adds yet another chapter to a procurement process that has stretched over more than 15 years, leaving the Royal Canadian Air Force flying CF-18 Hornets that entered service in the early 1980s.

How Did Canada’s F-35 Purchase Get Here?

Canada first committed to buying the F-35 in 2010 under the Harper government. That deal collapsed amid cost concerns and political controversy. In 2022, after a competitive evaluation, Canada selected the F-35 again, signing a deal reportedly worth approximately $19 billion Canadian. The first aircraft were expected to begin arriving around 2026.

A new government in Ottawa has since launched a review framed as fiscal responsibility. The practical result is further delay in a program already more than a decade behind schedule. The procurement has now survived four prime ministers and counting, with each new government revisiting, reviewing, and reconsidering.

Why Are Canada’s Aging CF-18s a Problem?

Canada’s current CF-18 Hornet fleet consists of airframes that are more than 40 years old. While they have received upgrades, the aircraft are operating well beyond their originally planned service life. Each additional year without a replacement drives up maintenance costs and erodes operational capability.

The F-35 is already flying operationally with more than a dozen air forces worldwide, including Australia, the United Kingdom, Norway, Japan, South Korea, Italy, and the Netherlands. Canada was one of the original partner nations in the Joint Strike Fighter program dating back to the 1990s, yet it still has no F-35s in service.

Why Should U.S. Pilots and Aviation Enthusiasts Care?

Continental air defence is the most direct concern. Canada and the United States share responsibility for North American airspace through NORAD. Canadian fighters intercept unknown aircraft approaching from the north and west. Degraded Canadian fighter capability affects the security of the airspace all North American pilots fly in.

Defence industrial economics also come into play. Lockheed Martin builds the F-35 with components from suppliers across North America, including Canadian companies. Delays or cancellations in allied orders affect production rates, which can ripple through to costs for other customers, including the U.S. military. The F-35 program’s unit economics depend partly on volume across all partner nations.

NATO alliance dynamics add another layer. Canada has consistently fallen short of the 2% of GDP defence spending benchmark that NATO members agreed to. Delaying a major fighter purchase worsens that shortfall at a time when alliance cohesion is under heightened scrutiny.

Is This Due Diligence or Indefinite Delay?

Reviewing a $19 billion purchase is not inherently unreasonable. Governments should scrutinize major defence spending. But there is a meaningful difference between due diligence and open-ended delay. When the defence minister states there is no timeline for completing the review, it raises legitimate questions about whether this constitutes oversight or avoidance.

The Canadian Armed Forces feel the impact directly. Pilots, maintenance crews, and planners have been told for years that new aircraft are coming. Morale and retention suffer when the timeline keeps shifting. Experienced military pilots who leave for airline careers or other opportunities represent expertise that takes years to rebuild.

What Happens Next?

The F-35 itself is not in question — the jet is proven and operational worldwide. The question is whether Canada will follow through on its purchase commitment, and when. With no decision timeline announced, the procurement remains in political limbo while the CF-18 fleet continues to age.

Key Takeaways

Canada’s review of its 88 F-35 purchase has no set timeline, extending a procurement process that began in 2010
The CF-18 Hornet fleet is over 40 years old and operating well beyond its planned service life
NORAD effectiveness is at stake — Canadian fighter capability directly affects North American airspace security
F-35 production economics depend on partner nation orders, meaning Canadian delays can affect costs for all buyers including the U.S.
Canada continues to fall short of NATO’s 2% GDP defence spending target, and this delay compounds the gap

Reporting drawn from AeroTime’s coverage of the Canadian defence review.